Colombia elections may dim investment prospects

Significance

Congressional elections scheduled for March 13 will give markets an understanding of the elements that will shape Colombian governance for the next four years. Inter-party primaries to be held the same day will finalise the list of candidates competing in the first-round presidential election on May 29.

Impacts

• Comunes, the party of the former FARC, is guaranteed five seats in each house of Congress but will struggle to better that.
• International media attention on Ingrid Betancourt’s presidential bid may prove disproportionate to her chances of success.
• A Petro presidency could dampen US-Colombian relations, but would not break the countries’ long-standing alliance.
• Whoever ultimately becomes president will be constrained by a fragmented Congress, dampening the possibility of any radical moves.