Odinga and Ruto will lead tight Kenya election race

Significance

The veteran opposition leader -- who has already unsuccessfully bid for the presidency four times -- is now seen as the face of the establishment, having formed an alliance with President Uhuru Kenyatta, who is standing down after two terms in office.

Impacts

• Odinga’s camp is confident of victory but this is based as much on his new ‘incumbency advantages’ as on his ability to out-mobilise Ruto.
• Concerns over Ruto’s lead may encourage Odinga’s allies to use divisive strategies to tarnish his reputation, raising risks of violence.
• The absence of a strong Kikuyu candidate will ease Kikuyu-Kalenjin tensions and make it easier to manage potential election violence.