Societal discontent will increase in Bahrain

Significance

Although large-scale social protest in Bahrain has been cowed over the ten years since the ‘Arab uprisings’, small-scale demonstrations recur, reflecting a base level of discontent. Mobilising issues include economic pressures, limited political representation (especially of the Shia majority) and, most recently, ties with Israel.

Impacts

• Despite protests, Israel’s and Bahrain’s respective ambassadors will keep up high-profile activity and statements.
• The authorities are likely to exaggerate the role of Iranian interference in order to deepen the Sunni-Shia divide.
• If Riyadh manages to extricate itself from the Yemen war, that could partly reduce the pressure on Manama.