Belarus leader will exploit evolving migrant dispute

Significance

Although the migrants were brought into Belarus and helped to reach the border, Lukashenka has depicted the crisis as EU-manufactured. The EU has imposed retaliatory sanctions; Minsk remains defiant. Lukashenka has sent some migrants home but hopes for further talks on humanitarian aid and possible solutions.

Impacts

• Ukraine has beefed up its security presence on the Belarusian border to anticipate any attempt to send migrants in its direction.
• The Belarusian authorities will not offer a home to Middle Eastern migrants for fear of causing tensions in this largely homogenous society.
• A recent temporary slowdown in oil transit does not signal another attempt to blackmail Europe; Russia will not allow it.