Growing refugee debate ups pressure on Erdogan

Significance

Erdogan is partly motivated by domestic alarm at the prospect of more Afghan refugees, which has heightened discontent over his policies regarding migration and the large, mainly Syrian refugee population ahead of elections in 2023. Viral social media posts this week amid a row over refugees 'provocatively' eating bananas that some Turks complain they cannot afford have resulted in the detentions of seven foreign nationals.

Impacts

• Ankara will maintain its close interest in Afghanistan, and Afghan refugees could become the major factor in Turkey-Iran relations.
• Turkey’s incentives to control territory in Syria will include keeping IDPs within Syria and supporting returnees from Turkey.
• International assistance for refugees in Turkey may have to focus on material benefits for both refugees and local communities.
• Integrating refugees and asylum-seekers could slow further, and liberalising work or residence permits may favour the best-qualified.
• Officials may treat Syrians more harshly and hostility towards them may be tolerated, but a clampdown on cheap irregular labour is unlikely.