Multiple crises mean future instability in Madagascar

Significance

Rajoelina faces a wide array of challenges as he looks towards the final two years of his current presidential term. These include severe tensions within his inner circle, a substantial economic crisis, problems linked to his management of the COVID-19 pandemic, and a major humanitarian crisis.

Impacts

• Increasing domestic and international pressure will lead to an opening of borders, possibly by October.
• The planned vaccine campaign will not prevent a new wave of COVID-19 infections.
• Economic recovery will be slow.