Iran’s water shortages may cause long-term instability

Significance

Iran’s worst drought in five decades sparked demonstrations that have spread to other cities, as people express solidarity as well as anger at government mismanagement and poor service provision. The water shortages have also contributed to rolling power outages.

Impacts

• The government will see environmental challenges in national security terms, rejecting any external interference.
• The authorities will seek to tighten internet controls further to manage future protests.
• An ongoing crackdown targeting agents of Israel’s Mossad could lead to wider purges, with targets including ethnic minorities.