Sudan’s military may play politics with peace talks

Significance

With at least 10,000 fighters under its command across the ‘Two Areas’ (South Kordofan and Blue Nile), a deal with SPLM-N/al-Hilu is seen as critical for consolidating Sudan’s peace process.

Impacts

• The military’s desire for a short-term political win may outweigh its fears of long-term political fallout from a peace deal.
• The transition period will likely be extended beyond 2023-24, with the military prolonging its leadership of the Sovereign Council.
• A peace deal would allow extractive industries to operate in the ‘Two Areas’, but ultimately uncertainty may deter serious investment.