Malian military unlikely to surrender political role

Significance

Their arrests followed a cabinet reshuffle which sidelined two ministers, both army officers and allies of Colonel Assimi Goita, who led the August 2020 coup that resulted in the transitional administration and who is now vice-president.

Impacts

• The coup in Chad in April and this second Malian coup may embolden officers in Burkina Faso and Niger to act.
• Sahel’s civilian presidents may now become wary of angering their militaries.
• Post-coup political positioning will further test the cohesion of the M5-RFP protest movement.