New law institutionalises Chinese maritime coercion

Significance

The CCG is the largest maritime law-enforcement fleet in the region, and over the last decade the key actor in Beijing's incremental moves to expand on-water administrative control in the South and East China Seas.

Impacts

• The law could prompt unit-level commanders to take more initiative in using force, though tighter discipline is likely to offset this.
• Japan is strengthening its own coast guard in response to China, but it will remain smaller, more lightly armed and civilian.
• The Philippines has issued a protest and flagged increased naval deployments, but the response will be limited because its navy is small.
• The new US administration will continue naval patrols in Chinese-claimed waters, with greater publicity.