North-east Syria’s frozen conflict will erode security

Significance

North-east Syria is divided into three zones: Damascus-controlled areas backed by Russia and Iran, SDF-held areas backed by the United States and territory dominated by the Syrian National Army (SNA), backed by Turkey. Pro-Turkish forces have in recent days been shelling government positions near Tal Abyad and the strategic M4 road near SDF-held Ain Issa.

Impacts

• The increase in more sophisticated IS attacks does not imply a full 'resurgence' of the group along 2014 lines.
• Even under US pressure, the SDF would be unwilling to break ties with the rebel Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Turkey.
• Any new offensive in Idlib, in the northwest, could temporarily relieve pressure on the SDF.