Belarus goes nuclear despite neighbours' unease

Significance

The start-up of Astravets's first reactor on November 3 was a rare public relations win for beleaguered strongman Alexander Lukashenka. Safety concerns surrounding the Russian-built plant created unease in the region long before Lukashenka's present troubles. The Baltic states and Poland refuse to buy its electricity. The European inspectors were verifying whether recommendations made in 2018 had been implemented.

Impacts

• Lukashenka hopes to secure USD3bn still unused from the USD10bn nuclear plant loan when he visits Russia this month.
• Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland are now centres for the Belarusian opposition; this will compound their opposition to Astravets.
• Baltic opposition to the Belarusian plant has been undermined by confusion over whether Lithuania and Latvia are consuming its electricity.
• Russia will play up Baltic and other EU safety concerns as evidence of a 'Western plot' against Belarus.