Staged Iran-US nuclear deal return will be challenging

Significance

Both Iran and the United States say they are ready to resume full compliance with the deal, if the other first restores its commitments. In theory, simultaneous return would solve the sequencing issue, but the team being assembled by US President Joe Biden faces complex decisions on which sanctions can be lifted, and when.

Impacts

• Iran’s threat to stop implementing the nuclear safeguards Additional Protocol risks crossing an EU red line, prompting separate sanctions.
• Gulf states and Israel will not be invited to discuss the JCPOA return but only follow-on negotiations on missiles and regional issues.
• Iran will not begin nuclear arms production, with mainstream politicians seeking a nuclear weapons capability only as an insurance policy.
• Tehran’s response after a Belgian court today sentenced an Iranian diplomat to 20 years for a bomb plot may seriously undermine EU ties.