Different demand dynamics will bifurcate nickel supply

Significance

Stainless steel production in China and Indonesia rose in the final months of 2020, tightening the market. Softer recent prices for stainless steel and NPI suggest near-term downside risk.

Impacts

• Over two-thirds of nickel in stainless steel is recycled, but the industry is yet to establish protocols to assess battery recyclability.
• Curtailing exploration prospects, budget cuts at Russia’s Norilsk Nickel and Australia's Clean TeQ will offset others' modest increases.
• Norilsk Nickel faces continued Kremlin pressure to answer for the environmental damage caused by last year's large oil spill.
• Indonesia’s NPI output will gain one-third in 2021, but the extra output will stay onshore, feeding the nation’s stainless steel output.