Ethiopia’s leader faces self-made election dilemmas

Significance

The National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) had initially aimed to organise the polls in May or June 2021, but a firm timeline remains pending. Meanwhile, there is increasing disquiet about the opposition’s capacity to participate in the polls.

Impacts

• A desire to create a semblance of competition may prompt the government to engage with detained opposition leaders.
• The elections could allow the ruling party to formalise its control of Tigray, cementing its national dominance.
• If the TPLF holds its ground in rural Tigray, home to about 80% of the population, elections in the region would be impractical.
• Intensifying boundary disputes, notably between Tigray and Amhara, could cause election delays.
• A contested election would affect the legitimacy of constitutional and institutional reforms expected after the elections.