Arauz and Lasso eye election showdown in Ecuador

Significance

After a turbulent term, President Lenin Moreno is not running again. The candidate of his Alianza Pais (Proud and Sovereign Homeland; AP), Ximena Pena, will be an outsider in a fragmented field. Guillermo Lasso of Creando Opportunidades (Creating Opportunities; CREO) and Andres Arauz of the Centro Democratico (Democratic Centre; CD) are frontrunners. Arauz is backed by former President Rafael Correa, but may yet be prevented from competing.

Impacts

• Victory for Arauz would pave the way for Correa’s return to Ecuador.
• A successful attempt to block Arauz’s participation would undermine the legitimacy of the next president and stoke political tensions.
• The elections are likely to go into a second round, although Lasso could win outright if Arauz is not allowed to compete.