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Ethiopia’s Tigray troubles are far from over

Content type:: Expert Briefings
Location:: ETHIOPIA
Keywords associated with this article:: Geographic: Ethiopia AF Eritrea

Topical: international relations politics social border conflict civil war decentralisation ethnic government human rights military opposition regional refugees
ISSN:: 2633-304X
Citation:: Oxford Analytica (2020), "Ethiopia’s Tigray troubles are far from over", Expert Briefings.
https://doi.org/10.1108/OXAN-DB257810

Thursday, November 26, 2020

Indeed, the lull in armed confrontation appears to have merely given both sides time to re-arm and regroup for the coming battle.

The TPLF may again target Amhara or Eritrea with rocket fire if it fears it is losing the battle for Tigray.
The security vacuum created by the redeployment of troops to the Tigray front will allow violence to fester elsewhere in the country.
The conflict will likely produce a massive humanitarian crisis, in Tigray and across the border in Sudan.
The conflict underscores the country’s fragility, which may discourage foreign investment, worsening COVID-19-related economic slippage.