Moldovan election run-off too close to call

Significance

Sandu, the pro-EU, reformist challenger, defied public opinion polls and early results to become the principal beneficiary of a large turnout among Moldovans abroad, almost twice those voting in the first-round 2016 presidential election. As neither scored over 50%, Sandu and Dodon will contest a second round on November 15.

Impacts

• Electoral discourse around Moldova's external orientation will become more pointed.
• Dodon failed to anticipate a strong showing by a pro-Western and pro-reform diaspora.
• Practical voter mobilisation on both sides will be complicated by the pandemic.