Morena will perform well in Mexico’s 2021 elections

Significance

The General Council rejected another organisation previously shortlisted as meeting the requirements for becoming a party: Free Mexico (ML), co-founded by former President Felipe Calderon (2006-12).

Impacts

• The PES may obtain some seats through party lists, but as it will struggle to obtain 3% of the vote it is likely to be short-lived.
• Corruption investigations will weigh on support for the Institutional Revolutionary Party and the PAN.
• Voting intention polls suggest Morena will win most of the 15 gubernatorial races that will take place.
• If the INE’s ML decision is not overruled, the PAN will probably contest the 2024 national elections without a rival on the centre-right.