Guinea's Conde may exploit opposition poll divisions

Significance

Despite the crackdown, FNDC-led protests are likely to intensify to try to disrupt the October 18 poll. However, Conde’s main concern is not the recurring protests, but rather ensuring a first-round victory.

Impacts

• Conde’s regional and international standing will be further damaged after the polls.
• Conde’s re-election would polarise the country and risk intensified protests and political instability.
• Increased political unrest raises the risk of disruption to the mining and agriculture sectors, hampering economic recovery.