US Court fight will start longer-term policy battle

Significance

This would mean a 6-3 conservative majority on the Court, and considerable controversy because Republican Senate leadership refused to consider a Court nominee ahead of the 2016 election. The candidate Trump chooses, and when confirmation is undertaken, will affect the November 3 presidential and Senate elections.

Impacts

• The nomination battle will play into the election, including Trump’s pro-gun and anti-abortion positions.
• Confirming a new justice, pre-election, would assure a full nine-member Supreme Court to handle any election disputes.
• House Democrats may seek to slow the confirmation by impeachment proceedings or stalling federal appropriations.
• If the Democrats win the White House, pressure from progressives to expand the Supreme Court will grow.