US attention will shift to the Arctic

Significance

The Arctic memorandum signals greater concern in the US defence community and Congress over rising great-power competition in the region. Russia has become more assertive militarily, while China is seeking greater presence, including in 2018 expressing interest in building airfields in Greenland.

Impacts

• Trump’s scepticism about NATO will make coordinating with allies over the Arctic more difficult.
• China and the United States will both seek access to Arctic natural resources.
• Greater US focus on the Arctic could cause tensions with Canada over the Northwest Passage.