China-Japan relations set for new downturn

Significance

Recent events suggest this is about to change.

Impacts

• Washington will press Japan to buy other US equipment after Tokyo cancelled the Aegis Ashore missile defence system.
• India’s and Australia’s confrontations with China will make them more willing security partners for Japan.
• A Democrat victory in the US presidential election would likely stabilise the alliance, but not remove US pressure on Japan vis-a-vis China.
• Japan will seek security cooperation with European partners, which will be more receptive due to their growing misgivings about China.