CDU election in Germany will affect AfD’s support

Subject

CDU future.

Significance

The electoral decline of the governing Christian Democratic Union (CDU) over the past two years and the increasing fragmentation of Germany’s political system make it unlikely that the party will win a majority in future state and federal elections. To avoid going into a coalition with left-wing parties, one option would be to cooperate with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), now the third-largest party in parliament. However, all factions of the CDU remain opposed to cooperating with the AfD, and this position will likely continue regardless of who becomes the next CDU leader, which should be announced once the COVID-19 crisis abates.

Impacts

• Support for the CDU has been rising following COVID-19, but this trend is unlikely to survive beyond the current crisis.
• A slow and disjointed recovery from the effects of COVID-19 would exacerbate inequality between west and east Germany.
• A prolonged economic and social crisis would likely increase the Green Party’s and AfD’s chances of getting into government.