Uganda’s opposition will lose public order law fight

Subject

Prospects for the opposition legal challenge to Uganda's public order legislation.

Significance

Independent MP and presidential challenger Robert Kyagulanyi (better known as ‘Bobi Wine’) is challenging Uganda’s controversial law on public assembly, the Public Order Management Act (POMA), in the Constitutional Court. Wine currently faces criminal charges for violating POMA by holding unauthorised protests against a controversial social media tax in 2018. He has more recently seen several of his presidential campaign events blocked or broken up by police based on the law.

Impacts

• Even if the government wins, the case may damage its reputation, as more attention is drawn to police brutality.
• Direct or indirect interference in the courts is unlikely to provoke much surprise or reaction among Ugandans.
• The ruling party may not have a clear strategy for handling the case, which could create space for some opposition political manoeuvre.