Virus undermines South Korean government as polls loom

Subject

Outlook for the April 2020 National Assembly election in South Korea.

Significance

The Wuhan coronavirus initially seemed well contained in South Korea, but in the past week numbers have soared 30-fold. As of today, there are 977 confirmed cases -- the second most in the world, after China -- with eleven fatalities so far. Some 144 new confirmed cases were reported today.

Impacts

• The election could be delayed if the virus continues to spread and countermeasures escalate, though conservatives would cry foul.
• Joint military exercises with the United States, scheduled for March, may be postponed.
• Recent changes to the proportional representation element of the voting system may favour smaller parties.
• The newly lowered voting age -- 18, formerly 19 -- might help Moon.
• South Korean 'soft power' will be damaged by some 15 countries (and counting) initiating travel restrictions on its citizens.