Russia seeks mediating but not dominant Libyan role

Significance

Moscow is increasingly involved in Libya in support of a dual ambition to be taken seriously as a regional power and an honest intermediary. As Turkey takes sides in the conflict, Moscow will engage with Ankara as it has done in Syria to overcome differences and secure mutually beneficial compromises. The Russian leadership seems less certain about its desired outcomes in Libya: it does not yet have a long-term vision of a future reconciliation and is ambivalent about its main ally, eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar.

Impacts

• Russia will need to pressure Haftar's main backer, the UAE, to make him more cooperative.
• Russia may use its influence in Egypt and Algeria to seek support for its Libya diplomacy.
• Moscow may seek to expand its military presence in Egypt if it wants a platform from which to support Haftar.