Migration to challenge Central American governments

Significance

A caravan some 600-strong left San Pedro Sula on January 15, swelling to over 2,500 by the time it reached the Guatemala-Mexico border. Sporadic clashes took place over several days as Mexican security forces attempted to prevent the caravan’s advance. The situation reflects the growing challenges facing Mexico and other Central American countries as they attempt to manage both humanitarian challenges and the strong US pressure to curb undocumented migration.

Impacts

• Any attempts to withdraw from ACAs would undermine efforts to extend US Temporary Protected Status for El Salvador and Honduras.
• Increased involvement by Mexican security forces in detaining migrants will raise the risk of violence and fatalities.
• Efforts to reduce emigration by improving Central American living conditions will have little to no short-term impact on migrant numbers.