Soleimani’s death may further weaken Iran in Syria

Subject

Iranian networks in Syria.

Significance

Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani played a key role in shaping the array of foreign and local Shia militias that supported the government of President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian civil war from 2011. This was a complex operation involving the mobilisation of sympathetic clerics across the Shia world, who sponsored and recruited the various militias, as well as the selection of capable military leaders.

Impacts

• The Quds Force will seek multiple means of retaliating against the United States through covert operations and proxies.
• Iran will take a pragmatic approach to preserving key alliances, including with Russia and Syria.
• The IRGC might accelerate the redeployment of some militias from Syria to Yemen, Iraq or other more promising theatres.
• IRGC leaders will become more cautious in their travel plans, reducing their scope to deploy personal charisma in co-opting foreign Shia.