Libya's Madkhali-Salafists will be a wild card

Subject

Salafists in Libya.

Significance

The fall of Sirte to eastern-based commander Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA) on January 6 was enabled by the changing of sides of 604 Brigade, a security group -- previously affiliated with the internationally recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) -- that espouses Salafism, and specifically the teaching of Saudi scholar Rabee al-Madkhali. Madkhali-Salafist groups are present in security formations on both main sides of the civil war in Libya.

Impacts

• The Madkhali presence in Libya will increase the soft power and ideological influence of Saudi Arabia.
• Madkhalis will seek to enforce their own mores on society.
• Once the conflict ends, in theory Madkhalis ought to lay down arms; the reality might be different.