US demography will test parties’ election strategies

Subject

US suburban politics and election campaiging ahead of the 2020 elections.

Significance

Both parties are gearing up for the 2020 elections next November, and much of the fight for votes will take place in the suburbs. Shifting demographics and economics are making US suburbs more diverse and varied, but simultaneously more segregated and unequal. Consequently, electoral politics in the suburbs are overall turning less favourable to the Republicans, making generalisations about suburban voters’ intentions in 2020 less well-founded.

Impacts

• Democrats will need to campaign in traditionally blue Midwestern states that Trump won in 2016.
• Trump’s presence on the ballot will bolster core Republican support and encourage voters to turn out who otherwise might not.
• Federal and state programmes that now focus almost fully on inner-city poverty will need redirection to rising suburban poverty.