Burundi faces complex succession battle

Subject

Succession politics ahead of Burundi's 2020 election.

Significance

With national elections approaching in May 2020 -- the first since President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a controversial third term in 2015, plunging the country into crisis -- the main question facing Burundi is whether he will insist on a fourth mandate (made possible by a 2018 constitutional revision) or accept someone else as his party’s presidential candidate. Nkurunziza is giving away few clues, but whichever way he turns will be fraught with difficulties.

Impacts

• In a worst-case scenario, the succession battle could lead to violence and political assassinations.
• Ethnicity has gradually disappeared as a major theme in Burundian politics but could resurface amid rising political polarisation.
• The precarious political climate around the election will increase the risks of regional spillover.