Russian succession talk reflects drift and uncertainty

Subject

Succession talk in Russia.

Significance

The question of what happens when Vladimir Putin's presidential term ends in 2024 has gone from taboo subject to a central topic of political discussion this year. The constitution requires Putin to stand down, but he has given no hint of what happens before or after that. Although the names of several contenders are in the air, positioning for an election bid is premature, as no one knows the Kremlin's plans.

Impacts

• Talk of an emerging contest (even in its absence) will encourage intra-elite rivalries and disputes.
• Putin's reluctance to address the future and offer certainty will destabilise the system.
• If Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev is not dismissed by end-2019, the consensus view is that he is safe until the 2021 election at least.