Luck and opportunity advance Russian aims in Syria

Significance

The US troop withdrawal from the Kurdish-controlled region and Turkey's paused invasion created an opportunity for Russia to intervene and avert a wider conflict. US President Donald Trump's lifting of sanctions against Turkey only underlines how Moscow has marginalised Washington's role in Syrian-Turkish-Kurdish dynamics. Russian is gratified by this, but more by securing a measure of control of the north-east and hence advancing its vision of an overall political settlement. This has been achieved at little cost and without antagonising the major regional actors involved.

Impacts

• Russia's military advantage and interests in Syria mean there is no other obvious state where such intervention could be replicated easily.
• Iraq offers parallels, but Russian interests there are mostly mercantile; avoiding offence to Iran would be a priority there.
• Moscow's assiduous courting of Saudi Arabia has created another regional friend that will not obstruct its actions in Syria.