Hong Kong protests may force long-term change

Significance

Lam delivered her speech by video instead. The policies she announced include measures to tackle the city’s economic problems but do not grant any of the demands made by the ongoing anti-government protest movement. Protests appear to have become more violent since the government exercised emergency powers for the first time on October 4.

Impacts

• The government will weigh further use of emergency powers very carefully, wary of their effect on Hong Kong’s international reputation.
• At current levels of violence, it is probably just a matter of time until there are deaths.
• The tourism, entertainment and retail sectors will suffer severe losses; disruption to public transport will damage other sectors too.
• Despite President Xi Jinping’s recent threat to use deadly force, mainland Chinese intervention still looks unlikely.
• The main effect of US legislation to sanction Hong Kong will be to complicate US relations with China even further.