South Africa's opposition will struggle to regroup

Significance

Both Maimane and Mashaba had decried a seeming rightward shift in the formerly white-dominated DA, which struggled to make significant inroads in the May 2019 general election with the country’s majority black population.

Impacts

• A new, white leader might stave off further losses with core voters but at the expense of gains with black voters.
• Race-based redress, black economic empowerment and diversity will continue to dominate internal debates ahead of an early party congress.
• A mooted new Maimane-Mashaba political movement would likely struggle to gain traction over the long term.