Two weeks out, minority Canada Liberal rule is likely

Significance

Canada’s federal election concludes on October 21. The campaign has seen various policies proposed by the four largest federal parties, two of which -- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives -- are best-placed to form the next government.

Impacts

• The Conservatives would likely find it harder to build alliances if they won as a minority government.
• The Liberals would likely ally with the NDP or Greens in a confidence and supply arrangement, going left politically.
• A Liberal-NDP government would mean pushes to reform healthcare, including introducing universal pharmacare.
• A Liberal-NDP government would be tougher on Canada’s oil sector and probably raise carbon taxes more quickly.
• Should Trudeau lose, he will likely be replaced as party leader; Scheer and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh would probably survive.