Contradictions risk undermining Mexico crime strategy

Subject

Military perceptions.

Significance

Residents of Acajete, Puebla, on September 9 reportedly attacked a group of soldiers guarding a warehouse that contained stolen train cargo. As ordered, the armed forces initially refused to retaliate, but the standoff eventually led President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) to authorise a proportional response. The following day the defence ministry (SEDENA) said any further incidents of this nature would be met with force. Similar attacks have nevertheless taken place in several states since.

Impacts

• Negative rhetoric about the security forces could foster tensions between the government and the military if the latter feel unsupported.
• Failure to develop effective civilian police forces to work with communities and gather local intelligence will hinder crime prevention.
• Further deterioration of the security situation may hit AMLO’s popularity, as he will increasingly be unable to blame predecessors.