May succession will increase chance of no-deal Brexit

Significance

Conservative leadership elections are notoriously difficult to predict and early frontrunners often falter. However, it is increasingly likely that a hard-line Brexiteer will replace May, especially after the Conservatives lost substantial support to the Brexit Party in the European Parliament (EP) elections.

Impacts

• The United Kingdom and the EU will be more prepared for a no-deal on October 31 than they were on March 29.
• Some Conservative Remain MPs will likely leave the party if a no-deal Brexit happens.
• MPs cannot directly prevent a no-deal but could hold a no-confidence vote in the government which would potentially trigger a snap election.
• Remain candidates to replace May will look to gain party support by saying a hard-line leader would make such an election more likely.