Kim’s hard line puts inter-Korean stability in doubt

Subject

Inter-Korean relations.

Significance

Visiting Washington on April 10-11, South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in got no support for sanctions relief for inter-Korean projects. On April 12, in a major policy speech, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un sharply criticised Seoul’s “pose as a meddlesome ‘mediator’”. Despite these rebuffs, Moon on April 15 claimed to find Kim’s message positive overall, and expressed readiness to meet him again, anywhere.

Impacts

• Along with a harder line at home, North Korea will draw closer to its old allies, China and Russia.
• Amid ever-closer China-North Korea ties, Chinese President Xi Jinping will probably visit Pyongyang this year.
• Weakening Moon -- a leader who supports inter-Korean engagement -- is counterproductive for Kim.
• A resurgent right-wing opposition may win parliamentary elections in Seoul in April next year, making Moon a lame duck.