Chances of renewed conflict in western Yemen are high

Significance

That is one of the terms of the Stockholm Agreement, signed in December 2018, which was the first -- and thus far only -- successful step toward de-escalation taken by the warring parties. Despite ongoing violations by all sides and their continued failure to pull back, a local ceasefire has largely been maintained, reducing the intensity of fighting in Hodeida. Forces backed by the Saudi-United Arab Emirates (UAE) coalition are positioning themselves to launch another offensive to capture the city and its port.

Impacts

• Any renewed offensive will exacerbate the humanitarian crisis by further restricting the delivery of essential aid.
• The Huthis may increase cross-border raids into Saudi Arabia and drone and missile attacks on coalition targets in Yemen and Saudi Arabia.
• Coalition air forces would intensify their bombing of targets in Huthi-held territory.