Regional battles will be key in India’s election

Significance

Different states and union territories will go to the polls on different dates, with many voting in more than one phase. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces a tough challenge from the main opposition Congress party and several regionally influential parties.

Impacts

• Anti-Pakistan nationalism would favour the BJP but, unless there are further cross-border hostilities, it is unlikely to be a key factor.
• Outbreaks of religious or caste violence are most likely in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar states.
• The post-poll government will struggle to rein in the fiscal deficit, with both main parties’ campaign pledges straining budgetary prudence.