Ukraine heads towards messy, unclear election finish

Subject

Ukraine's presidential election.

Significance

Addressing a March 18 rally of supporters in Kyiv, President Petro Poroshenko said he was confident of winning an honest victory in the March 31 election. Yet ten days from the presidential ballot, the outcome is unpredictable, with allegations of vote-buying and other wrongdoing.

Impacts

• Domestic political turmoil over election results would invite Russia to interfere.
• Victory for the inexperienced Zelensky may trigger a drive for a constitutional shift of powers from president to parliament.
• A Tymoshenko win could create further obstacles to the IMF's lending programme, given her past criticism of austerity measures.