India and Pakistan will push each other’s tolerance

Significance

India on February 26 conducted air strikes on Pakistani territory in response to a February 14 militant attack against its paramilitary forces by a Pakistan-based militant organisation. The two countries had not used air power against each other since fighting a war in 1971.

Impacts

• Jammu and Kashmir will see further political and social unrest as Indian security operations in the state intensify.
• India will aim to increase pressure on Pakistan at a March 1-2 Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) conference.
• Pakistan’s boycott of the OIC conference, due to India’s attendance, may attract increasing domestic criticism.
• China will face growing pressure to end resistance to Jaish-e-Mohammed leader Masood Azhar being designated a global terrorist by the UN.