New fighting impacts South Sudan peace on two levels

Significance

NAS alleges that the government’s South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) and the peace deal’s other main signatory, Riek Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Army-in Opposition (SPLA-IO), are taking part in the ongoing fighting. Reports of an imminent offensive had been circulating for weeks; allegations are now emerging of abuses against civilians.

Impacts

• Criticism from regional leaders, who have already threatened to designate non-signatories as ‘spoilers’, may be muted.
• The signatories will hope that the offensive will prompt defections, boosting their share of the balance of power.
• Plans to establish cantonment sites in the areas affected by fighting, for troops party to the deal, could prove a flashpoint.