Humanitarian and social pressures will rise in Iran

Significance

US sanctions are nevertheless causing major difficulties for importers. Even for trade that is technically exempt from sanctions, notably food and medicines, a lack of financial access is causing supply disruptions and increasing prices.

Impacts

• Supply disruptions and price increases for medical goods and food will affect inflation levels.
• The harmful effects of sanctions could undermine US policy by contradicting claims that the campaign is not aimed at the Iranian people.
• China and other alternative trading partners cannot easily replace European exporters of key goods.
• Declining imports of Chinese industrial goods may lead to rising unemployment, and further discontent.