Splits will intensify in Kenya's ruling party

Significance

The ruling Jubilee Party has struggled with internal disunity ever since Kenyatta and Ruto announced their unlikely alliance ahead of the 2013 general elections. Tensions have intensified following the resignation -- some say sacking -- of former Jubilee Party vice-chairman David Murathe in January, and comments by him that represent the first time a senior Kenyatta ally has said publicly he will do everything in his power to prevent Ruto from succeeding Kenyatta as party leader and president.

Impacts

• Ruling party disunity will intensify speculation over possible new coalitions, including one involving opposition leader Raila Odinga.
• If Kenyatta's allies are deemed to be betraying Ruto, the prospects for violence between Kikuyus and Kalenjins will increase dramatically.
• The outcome of 2022 elections, and the coalitions that will contest it, are becoming more uncertain, increasing the risk of instability.
• Political manoeuvring will deflect government attention from pressing policy concerns such as infrastructure and rising debt.
• The use of corruption allegations as a political weapon will lead to fresh investigations but not to an overall reduction in graft.