Indonesia’s elections will prompt more Papua unrest

Subject

Situation in Papua province.

Significance

Papua province is under increasing scrutiny ahead of Indonesia’s elections in April. An attack by separatist rebels early last month resulted in deaths of security personnel and civilians. President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo’s government later in the month finalised a deal to assume a controlling stake in the province’s economically important Grasberg mine.

Impacts

• Anti-government political violence is unlikely to diminish Jokowi’s substantial support in Papua or West Papua province.
• Violence at current levels will have little impact on mining operations or industrial food estates in Papua.
• Greater pressure on pro-independence Papuan activists, such as mass arrests, could lead to increased militancy and radicalisation.
• Papua will receive further international scrutiny during Indonesia’s campaign to become a member of the UN Human Rights Council.