US missile defence plans will prove overly ambitious

Subject

The Pentagon's recent Missile Defense Review.

Significance

President Donald Trump this month unveiled the first major review of US missile defence policy since 2010. Trump and his vice president have become staunch missile defence advocates, championing expansion in conjunction and coordination with efforts to create a Space Force. The ambitious effort outlined in the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Review this month would take the current, regionally focused missile defence programme and expand it so that it can, according to Trump, protect US nationals from missile attack, "anywhere, anytime, anyplace".

Impacts

• US advances in defensive capabilities will trigger technological escalation as China and Russia move to improve offensive capabilities.
• Washington likely cannot afford to keep pace with potential adversaries' offensive capabilities because defensive capabilities cost more.
• If the United States overtly ‘weaponises’ space, other countries will follow.
• The demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty will bring a whole class of destabilising missiles back into the equation.