Poll threatens Guyana's oil-investment friendliness

Significance

On December 21, the government of President David Granger lost a no confidence vote proposed by the opposition, which objects to the current administration’s economic policy and particularly its handling of recent oil finds. The country is now poised for snap elections, which the opposition would be well placed to win. This could lead to a shift in the country’s pro-investment regime, with potentially harmful implications for investment in the burgeoning oil sector.

Impacts

• Turmoil could encourage investors to look to neighbouring Suriname, which shares geological characteristics but has yet to make major finds.
• Political tensions could spill over into social protests, although these are unlikely to spark violence.
• Granger is unlikely to remain party leader if he loses the election, leading to a leadership battle in the Alliance for Change coalition.